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Volume 22, Number 19

POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT

 

(3/12/10)

 

Much has been made of how the Republican primary race for Governor of Texas focused heavily on Washington issues.  As it now stands, that same focus could move all the way down the ballot to your neighborhood state representatives contest.

 

You had to be paying real close attention to the GOP primary race between Governor Rick Perry and USSenator Kay Bailey Hutchison to hear discussion of state issues such as public and higher education, prisons, state taxes, water, border issues, transportation, etc.  The most noise was generated when Perry (successfully) tagged his fellow Republican, Hutchison, with all the real and perceived problems of Democrat-controlled Washington. 

 

With Perry’s decisive primary victory, the pundits started speculating that Perry may be soon seeking a national post.  But there is more to it than that easy explanation.  It has to do with whether the Democrats or the Republicans will get a lock on control in Washington for the next decade.  This is why the state races for governor and lieutenant governor and local races for state senator and state representative become of paramount importance to the two parties.

 

It all comes down to re-drawing US Congressional districts in 2011.  Governors, lieutenant governors, Speakers of state houses, state senators and state representatives will re-draw those boundaries and the party that has state control will try to draw the districts to favor their party, to remain in effect until 2021.  Each party has a history of playing hardball with re-districting.

 

You want examples?  Democrats had a 17-13 majority of the Texas Congressional delegation in 2000, but the state offices and the legislature were GOP-controlled in 2001.  After re-districting, the new tally was 20-12, with Republicans the majority.  On the flip side, in Georgia, control switched from the GOP to the Dems.  It’s even more important in Texas this year.  Due to Texas’s fast population growth, it is likely Texas will add four new Congressional seats.

 

Both the Democratic and Republican national parties have fund-raising and organizational efforts in place as we speak.  Both plan to pour money and effort into governor, lieutenant governor and local legislative district races this November.  And, if the current political climate continues, you can expect that even the race for your neighborhood state representative could focus on Washington, as well as state, issues.  How will that work?  See the next item.

 

 

(2/19/10)

 

Austin has doubled in size just about every 20 years.  To provide enough jobs to keep up with this growth pace, Austins mayor (a man who can do something about it) says the future economic focus should be on renewable energy, creative media and medical technology.

 

These three industries, says Mayor Lee Leffingwell, “can , and will, if we play our cards right, form a new foundation of sustained economic growth into the next generation.”

 

Renewable energy is a natural fit for Austin, says the mayor.  “We have a proud legacy of environmentalism in this community.  We have the technical expertise and the drive to innovate.  And we are the capital city for the most important state in today’s energy economy,” he said.  Theres no excuse for Austin not to be at the forefront of the global clean energy revolution happening today.”

 

Creative media is where the mayor says the “second clear opportunity for economic diversification” lies.  In this category, he includes the music industry, film and television, video gaming and everything happening with web-based services, mobile computing, and social networking.”

 

Medical technology and life sciences is “the third big opportunity for Austin,” said Leffingwell.  He pointed out that some of Austins largest employers are already in the health care sector (Seton, St. David’s, Girling, etc.), and went on to say:  “One of our biggest ambitions as a city and a region is to become home to a full-fledged medical school.  There are lots of creative, dedicated folks working hard on that goal right now.  I’m absolutely determined to see it happen, and Im extremely confident that it will happen.”

 

Speaking to the Real Estate Council of Austin, Leffingwell said “if we want to thrive into the future and we obviously do … this is the time to proactively, aggressively diversify Austins economy.  I cant emphasize the urgency of this enough.”

 

The mayor has other observations on what Austin needs to do to develop the local economy as as the state, national and global economy evolves.  And he has firm views on the use of incentives to attract industry to Austin.  We’ll examine those views and look at a couple of other economic areas he feels need emphasis in the next item.

 

(2/26/10)

 

Offering incentives (like tax breaks) to companies able to provide significant job creation in Austin has been a longtime practice, albeit a controversial one.  Austins mayor weighs in on the hot topic.

 

The most recent public example of the city’s granting incentives to a company involved the move of Hanger Orthopedics to relocate its corporate headquarters from Bethesda, Maryland to Austin.  Mayor Lee Leffingwell said “this was a major win, bringing a marquee company and nearly 400 jobs in a targeted industry” to Austin.

 

But still, incentives were offered and accepted.  How about that, mayor?  “To be clear, I do recognize that using incentives as an economic development tool can be controversial.  And I’ll also admit that I myself havent always been crazy about some of our incentive deals.  For example, I opposed the Domain incentive package several years ago (before he was mayor), even though I did not support undoing that agreement at the ballot box.”

 

What about last month’s vote on incentives for Hanger Orthopedics?  Ill do deals like the one we did with Hanger every day of the week:  performance-based, judicious, focused on a targeted industry, good-paying jobs with good benefits, and cash-positive for taxpayers over the life of the deal.”

 

Speaking to the Real Estate Council of Austin, Leffingwell went on to say the local incentives were “tied to larger incentives from the state’s Texas Enterprise Fund, which also have performance criteria that must be met.  So I say, bring me more.”

 

In addition to the three areas of economic focus Leffingwell mentioned previously (renewable energy, creative media and medical technology), he also mentioned another area where economic development efforts should be expanded.

 

Tourism and conventions.  “From the city’s perspective, there’s hardly a more desirable industry.  Here’s how it works:  You come to Austin.  You spend your money here.  You go home.  Very good stuff.  With all that we have to offer, Austin should be on the short list for every family vacation and corporate conference.”

 

“But one critical bottleneck we have to address is accommodations,” he noted.  We can take our convention business to a whole new level if we can ramp up the number of hotel rooms downtown.  The Marriott project that had been planned for 3rd and Congress was going to deliver what we needed – around 800 rooms – but it didn’t happen.”

 

The Austin mayor acknowledged the difficulty in bringing such a huge project to fruition.  “It’s obviously a tough time for a hotel project of that magnitude to find the capital it needs to go, but we’re very much on the hunt for interested parties,” Leffingwell said.  So, if you want to build a very large hotel in downtown Austin, call me and Ill buy you lunch.”

 

 


Volume 22, Number 19

HIGH TECH

 

(8/28/09)

 

In four or five years, your cell phone will replace your office computer and phone.  Far-fetched?  Not likely.  In fact, it is probable.  And it’s amazing what you will be able to do.

 

Our friends at Kiplinger point out that smart phones will be more reliable and able to handle many more chores.  New chips will speed processing and technology will make the airwaves less crowded.  Battery power will be less of a problem as handsets hold their charge longer.  Meanwhile, security fears are easing as protection software becomes more reliable.  In fact, data can be erased remotely if a phone is stolen or lost.  So, how will your iPhone, Blackberry or Palm Pre be used in this brave, new world?

 

Youll soon be able to make PowerPoint presentations from your cell phone.  What?  Yep, just point your phone to the wall.  No need to power up a laptop or use a projector.

 

Smart phones are especially useful for travel.  Salespeople view sales records.  TV repairers can see what the last service tech did.  Building contractors may look at changes in design.  Nobody has to go back to the office to file a report.

 

New iPhone applications are catching on fast:  tracking FedEx shipments, scanning documents, viewing spreadsheets, converting text to speech, recording billable hours, approving travel requests, etc.

 

Blackberry is countering with:  a credit card processor, a voice dictation recorder, a call time tracker to bill customers, an expense account writer, financial software, etc.

 

Many firms allow their own applications to be downloaded to smart phones:  customers make their own reservations online for hair salons and restaurants, realty firms give home hunters pricing and location for various neighborhoods, Nationwide lets car drivers in accidents take photos and begin insurance claims, Pizza Hut patrons go online to pick toppings, owners of Schlage locks can even open the front door from afar when kids lose keys.

 

Retailers are moving to m-Commerce -- mobile online sales.  Consumers are starting to buy event tickets, travel packages and travel insurance over smart phones.  Many firms are making sure their stores appear on Google maps.  Some are offering coupons that can be redeemed without a printout.  Others put up bar codes on posters, storefronts and other places – to be scanned by smart phones.  Some phones will even translate posters into other languages.

 

See what we mean.  In your brave new world, youll connect a phone to a monitor and keyboard, using the same computer for work and home.  Office and personal calls will be channeled to the same device.  Callers will think you’re at work when you’re at the beach.

 

 

(8/21/09)

 

New technology is on its way to help speed you through airport security lines.  But you are still going to have to shed your shoes.

 

Even though technological advancements ultimately will make your navigation of airport security systems easier and possibly quicker, you are still going to be asked to take off your shoes.  The reasons:  new technology for shoe scans flopped.  But officials have higher hopes for other bits of technology.

 

A billion dollars has been set aside to buy and install these new items.  First of all, new explosive detection systems for checked bags should allow security workers to more easily rule out bombs in checked bags.  This will help keep baggage moving and it should cut the odds of evacuations.

 

What else?  What about advanced screening equipment at security checkpoints?  Well, you know one of the delays that occurs is when airport security personnel stop the process to hand-examine suspicious items.  New X-Ray machines are planned that will allow multiple views of carry-on contents.  The hope is that this will make it easier to identify items in your carry-on gear so the need for hand-examinations will diminish.

 

There is even the possibility the ban on liquids could be lifted if improvements in software that will allow detection of liquid and gel explosives are ultimately implemented.  All this info comes from our friends at Kiplinger.

 

These should be installed in airports nationwide and should be in place in many terminals by the end of next year.  One other point.  Whole body scanners are still in limited use.  The idea of letting screeners see your body outline under your clothes is still controversial.  But the technology to produce less-revealing stick figures has not yet been approved.


Volume 22, Number 19

REAL ESTATE

 

(3/5/10)

 

There is no question 2009 was a tough year for homebuilders.  But when the going gets tough, the tough get going so, which builders gained market share in Austin during 2009?

 

Locally, certain national public builders gained the most market share through 2009, according to Mark Sprague, Business Development Director at Mission Mortgage.  Of course, there are fewer production builders than there were in the go-go days of 2005 and 2006.  Let’s look at the scorecard for those builders that had the financing to keep plodding ahead during the difficult 2009 timeframe.

 

According to Sprague, DR Horton led the pack.  It notched a 17.4% market share in 2009, compared to a 12.9% share in 2008.  Pulte/Centex lost ground to DR Horton in 2009, when it garnered a 13.7% market share, after nipping at Horton’s heels with a 12.4% share in 2008.

 

Other production builders:  KB Homes racked up a 9.6% market share in 2009, after a 6.6% share in 2008.  Lennar stayed fairly level – 7.1% in 2009, after a 7% in 2008.  And Taylor/Morrison also increased only slightly, to 3.6% in 2009 from 3.5% in 2008.

 

Looking at the Top Five, DR Horton showed the most market share improvement with a +4.6% increase in market share in the Austin market.

These national production builders had the advantage of financial strength from their parent corporations.  Sprague pointed out that those national builders with cash helped stimulate the market and prevent further deterioration of values, “not that we had that much in the Austin area.” 

 

What about the smaller, regional and privately-held builders that generally didnt have the financial muscle of a large national homebuilding company  considering how tight financing has been during the past year.  Sprague said builders Jimmy Jacobs, Streetman, Buffington, Drees, Grand Haven and Highland “made progress as well.”

 

But what about the future?  What can you expect in homebuilding, homeselling and homebuying?  Check out the next item.

 

 

(3/5/10)

 

What can Austin area homeowners, homesellers, homebuyers and homebuilders expect in the near future?  One thing for sure, it will change.  And, depending upon your particular situation, it could be good or bad.

 

One thing going for residential real estate in 2009, despite a slower market, was that it was somewhat stable.  No wild gyrations.  Tight financing, tough appraisals, wary buyers, fewer sellers, etc. – combined to keep the Austin area market on an even keel.  Not great, not bad.  And better than most other markets in the US.  But what is on the horizon?

 

First of all, you need to understand that Austin area housing will be more expensive in the future.  A number of factors will cause this to happen.  Interest rates will most assuredly rise from the current very low levels.  Yeah but, interest rates don’t affect the price, you say.  True.  But rates affect the monthly payment – and that is the most important ingredient for most homebuyers.

 

Another factor – so few new lots are being brought online that, as the economy rebounds, their price will increase.  This obviously adds to the cost of a new home.  One reason the supply of buildable lots is diminishing is financial institutions are reluctant to loan money to developers to keep the inventory of lots growing.  Also, home building material costs are going up.

 

The inventory of homes with a “For Sale” sign in the front yard is very tight.  This situation could easily swing from a stable situation to one where demand could exceed supply, pushing home prices upward.  In fact, there is a slight trend in that direction already underway.

 

What does this mean if you want to sell your home?  Be patient.  What if you want to buy a home?  Move now, to get the lowest price.  What if you are a homeowner, not wanting to sell, but concerned about your homes value?  Wait, as the value is likely to rise.

 

 

 


Volume 22, Number 19

BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

 

(3/19/10)

 

How much will the Austin areas population grow in the next five years -- between now and 2014?  What about other metros in Texas?  How will the Austin metro compare to them?  And what will be the pace of population growth and workforce gains?

 

Let’s go straight to the bottom line.  The 5-county Austin-Round Rock metro area will notch a 2.72% population compound annual growth rate and a 2.42% employment gain from 2009 to 2014.  This percentage gain will lead all metros in the state of Texas, according to economists at The Perryman Group.  In terms of actual numbers, the population gain is forecast to be 241,558 and the employment gain 103,775.

 

Of the 25 metro areas in Texas, the Perryman Short-Term Economic Forecast 2009-2014 points out that the five largest metros will be responsible for 76.29% of the states total population gain and 72.52% of the jobs added across the state.

 

And, as we said, the Austin metro is at the top of the list of the five biggies – by a comfortable percentage growth margin.  Ray Perryman, the President/CEO of The Perryman Group, says “Texas is expected to continue to grow both through natural increase as well as immigration into the state.”

 

He noted that Texas saw population gains throughout this past year.  “In fact,” Perryman said, “according to Allied Van Lines’ Annual Magnet States Report, Texas ranked as the number one destination state for last year, with more individuals moving to the state than anywhere in the US in 2009.”

 

But with this anticipated population growth, will there be enough jobs for those moving into the area?  Perryman acknowledges the difficult times when he said Texas has not been untouched by the economic difficulties during the past two years.  And he admits that it will likely be several months before job expansion can be sustained.

 

He notes, however, that our economy is performing relatively well compared to the nation as a whole.  And he predicted that, of all the Texas metros, the Austin area will likely experience the fastest employment growth rate between now and 2014.

 

 

(2/19/10)

 

Speaking of tourism, a new trend is developing around Austin and it could bode well for the economy of the region.

 

For decades, business and civic leaders in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, along the border with Mexico, have campaigned aggressively to lure Midwesterners to leave the harsh winters of the heartland and head down IH35 to spend the winter in our more moderate climate.  They call themselves “Winter Texans” and they had a positive economic impact on the Valley.

 

Now, it seems the Central Texas Hill Country has supplanted the semi-tropical Valley as the preferred Texas destination.  According to a survey by TexasCampgounds.com, 39% of Winter Texans vacation in the Hill Country and 38% set up camp along the Gulf Coast.  The previous preferred destination, the Valley, was cited by only 24% of those surveyed.

 

Importantly, just over half of the Winter Texans surveyed plan to spend as much time wintering here as last year and 35% plan to stay longer.  Forty percent said they planned to winter in Texas for one to two months.  An additional 15% planned to stay three to four weeks, while 13% planned to stay 3 to 4 months and 25% planned to stay 6 months or longer.

 

Most of the Winter Texans hop in their RV’s and drive to a campground.  And campgrounds are becoming more elaborate, with a lot of amenities.  For instance, a large campsite was recently developed on Hudson Bend Road in western Travis County, offering sites with porches, a community center, ponds, paved roads, etc. – replicating a community neighborhood.

 

IH35, linking Canada and Mexico and traversing right through the Austin area, is the natural funnel for Winter Texans to get away from snow shoveling.  Many are now peeling off the roadway when they get to the Austin area to enjoy the Central Texas quality of life.  Why are they foregoing the more semi-tropical Rio Grande Valley?  The survey didn’t publicize those reasons.  But you have to wonder if the violence, both real and perceived, in Mexican border towns didn’t play a role in such decision-making.

 

 

(2/12/10)

 

An Index that tracks data to foretell economic change before it occurs is looking positive for the State of Texas.

 

It’s called the Texas Index of Leading Indicators and it is compiled from eight different sources by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.  The most recent update indicates improvement is continuing in the Texas economy.  This economic barometer is a composite of data that tend to change direction before the overall economy.

 

Looking back, the Fed’s Index showed nine straight months of decline in Texas until April 2009.  At that moment, the decline smashed into a wall and, in fact, the Index edged up 1.5% in April 2009.  Since that time, the trend has been positive with only a minor blip.

 

The April uptick “was followed by 3.9% and 2.0% increases in May and July, along with a moderate decline of less than 1% in June,” pointed out Beverly Kerr, the Austin Chamber’s VP/Research.  “August, September and October’s changes were fractional but positive,” she added.

 

The last two months saw gains of 2.0% and 1.1%.  As a result, this widely-watched Index ended the year 12% above the low it reached in March.

 

So, if this number-crunching is a predictor of what is in store, what about job growth?  With regular headlines pointing out that national unemployment numbers are high and staying high, what about the creation of new jobs in Texas?  What do the numbers seem to indicate?

 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is suggesting that Texas job growth may come in between 1% and 2% in 2010, according to Kerr.  This is very healthy, especially coming out of a negative situation last year.  And it certainly is in stark contrast to what is going on elsewhere around the US.

 

Kerr also took note of another set of stats issued by the Dallas Fed.  Without going into eye-glazing economic mumbo-jumbo about this separate report, she said “a simple extrapolation of this measure might indicate Austin could return to growth in early 2010.  Well, here we are – in early 2010.  We’ll keep an eye on this for you to see how it turns out.

 

 

 


Volume 22, Number 19

ENVIRONMENT

 

(2/19/10)

 

After suffering from drought-level lows less than a year ago, Lake Travis is almost full.”  It is still rising from recent rains and, with a bit more rain, could soon be full.

 

The engineers at the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) who control the levels of Lake Travis have set an elevation of 681’ above sea level as the point where flooding can best be controlled.  In other words, the full level is not all the way up to the spillway.  It gives the engineers enough room if deluges send massive amounts of water rushing into the lake.

 

Rivers and streams that flow into the Highland Lakes remain slightly elevated from the rains last week.  So, what is the current level of Lake Travis?  At the current rate of inflow, the LCRA projects the lake to reach the 675 level next week just 6 below the fullmark of 681’. Last week, it passed the 671’ mark.  The historical average is 670.67’.

 

By the way, today (2/19/10) marks the 75th anniversary of the LCRA.  For a century prior to the formation of LCRA, there were many efforts to build dams on the Colorado River.  Austin, for instance, twice built a dam in the early 20th century, only to see the structures destroyed or severely damaged by catastrophic floods.

 

Following the Great Depression, the Public Works Administration made federal funds available for large infrastructure projects to a public agency.  After three defeats in the Texas Legislature, the LCRA was created in late 1934.  It formally opened for business in the Travis County Courthouse February 19, 1935.  Construction of dams along the Colorado River began right away.  LCRA provides energy, water and community services to more than a million people in all or parts of 61 Central and South Texas counties.  It cannot levy taxes or receive tax money, but must operate on revenues it receives for services.  Its annual budget:  $1.2 billion.


Volume 22, Number 19

GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

 

(3.5.10)

 

The student population at UTAustin is getting very close to the highest enrollment ever recorded.  And it is already one of the largest single campuses in the US.

 

In fall 2002, student enrollment on the Forty Acres reached an all-time high of 52,261.  In an apples-to-apples comparison, the student body this fall was 50,955.  And based on applications and other benchmarks, UTAustin officials say the fall 2010 tally could exceed 52,000.

 

Why is this important?  When we exceed 50,000, we aggravate a serious shortage of undergraduate laboratory space for classes our students need to graduate,” says UTAustin president Bill Powers.

 

There has always been enrollment pressure at the flagship institution.  For instance, 31,000 students submitted applications for enrollment at UTAustin this fall.  The university actually admitted more than 14,000.  Based on past history, UTAustin is projecting that about half of these admitted students will choose to go elsewhere.  So, it is anticipating the incoming 2010 freshman class will number 7,200.

 

This is particularly timely because this week the UTSystem Board of Regents approved average student tuition increases at UTAustin of 3.95%.  So it will now cost more for parents to send their kids to UTAustin.  The question then arises:  will this tuition hike cut down on the student population on the Forty Acres?  Not a chance.  Look at the previous paragraph.  About 31,000 students applied for admission to a class that will end up at about 7,200.

 

In actual dollars, what will it now cost to send Momma’s and Daddy’s little darlin’s to UTAustin this fall?  When you add mandatory fees and a student-imposed fee for a new activity center to tuition, the cost per semester will be $4,709.  Next year, 2011, tuition will go up again -- by 3.89%.

 

Powers points out there have been media reports that other state university institutions are raising tuition – 7.5% at the University of Minnesota, 9% at the University of Illinois, 32% at the University of California system.

 

Another comparison.  There are only three Tier One universities in Texas, those with the highest academic ranking – UTAustin, TexasA&M and Rice, a private university.  Rice also announced tuition increases effective this fall.  The undergrad tuition increase will be 5.4%.  This will raise Rices cost for 2010-2011 to $33,120.  When you add room and board (which also increased), the cost for entering students at Rice will be close to $48,500.  Rice pointed out that its tuition and fees are about $6,000 less than that charged by its peer private universities.

 

Final note, amplifying the above point about so many “accepted” students not attending UTAustin.  More than half the students with SAT scores in excess of 1400 declined to accept and a majority of students offered one of UTAustin’s most generous scholarships declined to accept.  So UTAustin has embarked on a $150 million scholarship drive.

 

 

(2/26/10)

 

Austin is obviously changing, especially in the diversity of the people who live in the Austin area.  This has been obvious for some time, but one aspect of this may be surprising to you.

 

When the results of the 2010 USCensus are finally released, it should show that Asian-Americans will have vaulted into a tie with African-Americans as a percentage of the areas population.  Each group will have about 7% of the local population.  Hispanics will have surged to about 37% of Austins population and another 2% will be other ethnic minorities.  And, as these numbers show, the Anglo population will be less than 50%.

 

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