Sample Stories These are only examples of what your paid subscription will allow you to see each week. To get the whole story, subscribe today.
Volume 22, Number 19
POLITICS AND
GOVERNMENT
(3/12/10)
Much has been made
of how the Republican primary race for Governor of Texas
focused heavily on Washington
issues.As it now stands, that same focus could move all the way down the ballot to your
neighborhood state representative’s
contest.
You had to be paying real close attention to the GOP
primary race between Governor Rick Perry
and USSenator Kay Bailey Hutchison to
hear discussion of state issues such
as public and higher education, prisons, state taxes, water, border issues,
transportation, etc.The most noise was
generated when Perry (successfully) tagged his fellow Republican, Hutchison,
with all the real and perceived problems of Democrat-controlled Washington.
With Perry’s decisive primary victory, the pundits
started speculating that Perry may be soon seeking a national post.But there is more to it than that easy
explanation.It has to do with whether the Democrats or the Republicans
will get a lock on control in Washington
for the next decade.This is why the
state races for governor and
lieutenant governor and local races
for state senator and state representative become of paramount importance to
the two parties.
It all comes down to re-drawing US Congressional
districts in 2011.Governors, lieutenant
governors, Speakers of state houses, state senators and state representatives
will re-draw those boundaries and the
party that has state control will try to draw the districts to favor their
party, to remain in effect until
2021.Each party has a history of playing hardball with re-districting.
You want examples?Democrats had a 17-13 majority of the Texas Congressional delegation in 2000, but
the state offices and the legislature
were GOP-controlled in 2001.After re-districting, the new tally was 20-12, with Republicans the majority.On the flip side, in Georgia, control switched from the
GOP to the Dems.It’s even more
important in Texas
this year.Due to Texas’s
fast population growth, it is likely Texas will add four new Congressional seats.
Both the Democratic and Republican national parties have
fund-raising and organizational efforts in place as we speak.Both
plan to pour money and effort into governor, lieutenant governor and local legislative district races this November.And, if the current political climate continues,
you can expect that even the race for your neighborhood state representative
could focus on Washington,
as well as state, issues.How will that
work?See the next item.
(2/19/10)
Austin has doubled in size just about every 20
years.To provide enough jobs to keep up with this
growth pace, Austin’s mayor (a man who can do
something about it) says the future
economic focus should be on renewable energy, creative media and medical technology.
These three industries, says Mayor Lee Leffingwell, “can , and will, if we play our cards right, form
a new foundation of sustained economic
growth into the next generation.”
Renewable energy
is a natural fit for Austin,
says the mayor.“We have a proud legacy of environmentalism in this
community.We have the technical expertiseand the drive to innovate.And we are the capital city for the most
important state in today’s energy economy,” he said.“There’s no excuse for Austin not to be at the forefront of the
global clean energy revolution happening today.”
Creative media
is where the mayor says the “second clear opportunity for economic
diversification” lies.In this category,
he includes the music industry, film and television, video gaming and “everything happening with web-based
services, mobile computing, and social networking.”
Medical technology
and life sciences is “the third big opportunity for Austin,” said Leffingwell.He pointed out that some of Austin’s largest employers are already in the
health care sector (Seton, St. David’s, Girling, etc.), and went on to
say:“One of our biggest ambitions as a
city and a region is to become home to a
full-fledged medical school.There are lots of creative, dedicated folks
working hard on that goal right now.I’m
absolutely determined to see it happen, and I’m extremely confident that
it will happen.”
Speaking to the Real Estate Council of Austin,
Leffingwell said “if we want to thrive into the future and we obviously do … this is the time to proactively, aggressively diversify Austin’s economy.I can’t emphasize the urgency of this enough.”
The mayor has other observations on what Austin needs to do to develop the local
economy as as the state, national and global economy evolves.And he
has firm views on the use of incentives to attract industry to Austin.We’ll examine those views and look at a
couple of other economic areas he feels need emphasis in the next item.
(2/26/10)
Offering incentives (like tax breaks) to companies able to provide significant job creation in Austin has been a longtime
practice, albeit a controversial one.Austin’s mayor weighs in on the hot topic.
The most recent public example of the city’s granting
incentives to a company involved the move of Hanger Orthopedics to relocate its
corporate headquarters from Bethesda, Maryland to Austin.Mayor Lee
Leffingwell said “this was a major win, bringing a marquee company and
nearly 400 jobs in a targeted industry” to Austin.
But still, incentives were offered and accepted.How about that, mayor?“To be clear, I do recognize that using
incentives as an economic development tool can be controversial.And I’ll also admit that I myself haven’t always been
crazy about some of our incentive deals.For example, I opposed the Domain incentive package several years ago
(before he was mayor), even though I did not support undoing that agreement at
the ballot box.”
What about last month’s vote on incentives for Hanger
Orthopedics?“I’ll do deals like the one
we did with Hanger every day of the week:performance-based, judicious, focused on a targeted industry,
good-paying jobs with good benefits, and cash-positive for taxpayers over the
life of the deal.”
Speaking to the Real Estate Council of Austin,
Leffingwell went on to say the local incentives were “tied to larger incentives from the state’s Texas Enterprise Fund,
which also have performance criteria that must be met.So I
say, bring me more.”
In addition to the three areas of economic focus
Leffingwell mentioned previously (renewable energy, creative media and medical
technology), he also mentioned another area where economic development efforts
should be expanded.
Tourism and
conventions.“From the city’s
perspective, there’s hardly a more
desirable industry.Here’s how it
works:You come to Austin.You
spend your money here.You go home.Very good stuff.With all that we have to offer, Austin should be on the
short list for every family vacation and corporate conference.”
“But one critical bottleneck we have to address is
accommodations,” he noted.“We can take our convention business to a
whole new level if we can ramp up the number of hotel rooms downtown.The Marriott project that had been planned
for 3rd and Congress was going to deliver what we needed – around
800 rooms – but it didn’t happen.”
The Austin
mayor acknowledged the difficulty in bringing such a huge project to
fruition.“It’s obviously a tough time
for a hotel project of that magnitude to find the capital it needs to go, but
we’re very much on the hunt for interested parties,” Leffingwell said.“So, if you want to build a very large hotel in
downtown Austin, call me and I’ll buy you lunch.”
Volume 22, Number 19
HIGH TECH
(8/28/09)
In four or five
years, your cell phone will replace
your office computer and phone.Far-fetched?Not
likely.In fact, it is probable.And it’s amazing what you will be able to do.
Our friends at Kiplinger
point out that smart phones will be more reliable and able to handle many more
chores.New chips will speed processing and technology will make the airwaves
less crowded.Battery power will be less of a problem as
handsets hold their charge longer.Meanwhile, security fears are
easing as protection software becomes more reliable.In fact, data can be erased remotely if a
phone is stolen or lost.So, how will
your iPhone, Blackberry or Palm Pre be used in this brave, new world?
You’ll soon be able to make PowerPoint
presentations from your cell phone.What?Yep, just point your phone
to the wall.No need to power up a
laptop or use a projector.
Smart phones are
especially useful for travel.Salespeople view sales records.TV repairers can see what the last service tech did.Building contractors may look at changes in
design.Nobody has to go back to the
office to file a report.
New iPhone
applications are catching on fast:tracking FedEx shipments, scanning documents, viewing spreadsheets,
converting text to speech, recording billable hours, approving travel requests,
etc.
Blackberry is
countering with:a credit card
processor, a voice dictation recorder, a call time tracker to bill customers,
an expense account writer, financial software, etc.
Many firms allow
their own applications to be downloaded to smart phones:customers make their own reservations online
for hair salons and restaurants, realty firms give home hunters pricing and
location for various neighborhoods, Nationwide lets car drivers in accidents
take photos and begin insurance claims, Pizza Hut patrons go online to pick
toppings, owners of Schlage locks can even open the front door from afar when
kids lose keys.
Retailers are
moving to m-Commerce -- mobile online sales.Consumers are starting to buy event tickets,
travel packages and travel insurance over smart phones.Many firms are making sure their stores
appear on Google maps.Some are offering
coupons that can be redeemed without a printout.Others put up bar codes on posters,
storefronts and other places – to be scanned by smart phones.Some phones will even translate posters into
other languages.
See what we mean.In your brave new world, you’ll connect a phone to a monitor and
keyboard, using the same computer
for work and home.Office and
personal calls will be channeled to the same device.Callers will think you’re at work when you’re
at the beach.
(8/21/09)
New technology is on
its way to help speed you through airport security lines.But
you are still going to have to shed your shoes.
Even though technological advancements ultimately will
make your navigation of airport security systems easier and possibly quicker,
you are still going to be asked to take off your shoes.The reasons:new technology for shoe scans
flopped.But officials have higher
hopes for other bits of technology.
A billion dollars has been set aside to buy and install
these new items.First of all, new explosive detection systems for checked bags
should allow security workers to more easily rule out bombs in checked
bags.This will help keep baggage moving
and it should cut the odds of evacuations.
What else?What
about advanced screening equipment
at security checkpoints?Well, you know
one of the delays that occurs is when airport security personnel stop the process tohand-examine suspicious items.New X-Ray machines are planned that will allow multiple views of carry-on contents.The hope is that this will make it easier to
identify items in your carry-on gear so the need for hand-examinations will
diminish.
There is even the possibility the ban on liquids could be lifted if improvements in software that
will allow detection of liquid and gel explosives are ultimately
implemented.All this info comes from
our friends at Kiplinger.
These should be installed in airports nationwide and should be in place in many terminals by the
end of next year.One other
point.Whole body scanners are still in
limited use.The idea of letting
screeners see your body outline under your clothes is still controversial.But the technology to produce less-revealing
stick figures has not yet been approved.
Volume 22, Number 19
REAL ESTATE
(3/5/10)
There is no question
2009 was a tough year for homebuilders.But when the going gets tough, the tough get going – so, which builders gained market share in Austin during 2009?
Locally, certain national public builders gained the most
market share through 2009, according to Mark
Sprague, Business Development Director at Mission Mortgage.Of course, there are fewer production
builders than there were in the go-go days of 2005 and 2006.Let’s look at the scorecard for those
builders that had the financing to keep plodding ahead during the difficult
2009 timeframe.
According to Sprague, DR Horton led the pack.It
notched a 17.4% market share in 2009, compared to a 12.9% share in 2008.Pulte/Centex lost ground to DR Horton in 2009,
when it garnered a 13.7% market share, after nipping at Horton’s heels with a
12.4% share in 2008.
Other production builders:KB
Homes racked up a 9.6% market share in 2009, after a 6.6% share in
2008.Lennar stayed fairly level – 7.1% in 2009, after a 7% in 2008.And Taylor/Morrison also increased only slightly,
to 3.6% in 2009 from 3.5% in 2008.
Looking at the Top Five, DR Horton showed the most market share improvement with a +4.6% increase in market share in the Austin market.
These national production builders had the advantage of
financial strength from their parent corporations.Sprague pointed out that those national
builders with cash helped stimulate the
market and prevent further deterioration of values, “not that we had that
much in the Austin
area.”
What about the
smaller, regional and privately-held builders that generally didn’t have the financial muscle of a large
national homebuilding companyconsidering how tight financing has been during the past year.Sprague said builders Jimmy Jacobs, Streetman, Buffington, Drees, Grand Haven and
Highland “made progress as well.”
But what about the future?What can you expect in
homebuilding, homeselling and
homebuying?Check out the next item.
(3/5/10)
What can Austin area
homeowners, homesellers, homebuyers and homebuilders expect in the
near future?One thing for sure, it will change.And,
depending upon your particular situation, it could be good or bad.
One thing going for residential real estate in 2009,
despite a slower market, was that it was somewhat stable.No
wild gyrations.Tight financing,
tough appraisals, wary buyers, fewer sellers, etc. – combined to keep the Austin area market on an
even keel.Not great, not bad.And better than most other markets in the US.But what is on the horizon?
First of all, you need to understand that Austin area housing will be more expensive in the
future.A number of factors will
cause this to happen.Interest rates will most assuredly rise
from the current very low levels.Yeah but, interest rates don’t affect the price, you say.True.But rates affect the monthly payment – and that is the most important
ingredient for most homebuyers.
Another factor – so
few new lots are being brought online that, as the economy rebounds,
their price will increase.This
obviously adds to the cost of a new home.One reason the supply of buildable lots is diminishing is financial
institutions are reluctant to loan money to developers to keep the inventory of
lots growing.Also, homebuilding material costs
are going up.
The inventory of homes with a “For Sale” sign in the
front yard is very tight.This situation
could easily swing from a stable
situation to one where demand could exceed supply, pushing home prices upward.In fact, there is a slight trend in that direction already underway.
What does this mean if you want to sell your home?Be patient.What if you want to buy a home?Move now, to get the lowest price.What if you are a homeowner, not wanting to
sell, but concerned about your home’s value?Wait, as the value is
likely to rise.
Volume 22, Number 19
BUSINESS AND
ECONOMY
(3/19/10)
How much will the Austin area’s population grow in the next five years--between now and 2014?What about other metros in Texas?How will the Austin metro compare to them?And
what will be the pace of population growth and workforce gains?
Let’s go straight to the bottom line.The 5-county Austin-Round Rock metro area
will notch a 2.72%population compound annual growth rate and a 2.42%employmentgain from 2009 to 2014.This
percentage gain will lead all metros in the state of Texas, according to economists at The
Perryman Group.In terms of actual
numbers, the population gain is forecast
to be 241,558 and the employment
gain 103,775.
Of the 25 metro areas in Texas, the Perryman Short-Term Economic
Forecast 2009-2014 points out that the five
largest metros will be responsible for 76.29% of the state’s total population gain and 72.52%
of the jobs added across the state.
And, as we said, the Austin metro is at the top of the list of the
five biggies – by a comfortable percentage growth margin.Ray
Perryman, the President/CEO of The Perryman Group, says “Texas is expected to continue to grow both
through natural increase as well as immigration into the state.”
He noted that Texas
saw population gains throughout this past year.“In fact,” Perryman said, “according to Allied Van Lines’ Annual Magnet
States Report, Texas ranked as the number one destination state
for last year, with more individuals
moving to the state than anywhere in the US in 2009.”
But with this anticipated population growth, will there
be enough jobs for those moving into the area?Perryman acknowledges the difficult times when he said Texas has not been untouched by the economic
difficulties during the past two years.And he admits that it will likely
be several months before job expansion can be sustained.
He notes, however, that our economy is performing
relatively well compared to the nation as a whole.And he predicted that, of all the Texas metros, the Austin area will likely
experience the fastest employment growth rate between now and 2014.
(2/19/10)
Speaking of tourism, a new trend is developing around Austin and it could bode
well for the economy of the region.
For decades, business and civic leaders in the LowerRio GrandeValley, along the border with Mexico,
have campaigned aggressively to lure Midwesterners to leave the harsh winters of the heartland and head down IH35 to spend
the winter in our more moderate climate.They call themselves “Winter
Texans” and they had a positive economic impact on the Valley.
Now, it seems the Central
Texas Hill Country has supplanted the semi-tropical Valley as the preferred Texas destination.According to a survey by TexasCampgounds.com,
39% of Winter Texans vacation in the Hill Country and 38% set up camp along the
GulfCoast.The previous preferred destination, the Valley, was cited by only 24% of
those surveyed.
Importantly, just over half of the Winter Texans surveyed plan to spend as much time wintering
here as last year and 35% plan to stay
longer.Forty percent said they
planned to winter in Texas
for one to two months.An additional 15%
planned to stay three to four weeks, while 13% planned to stay 3 to 4 months
and 25% planned to stay 6 months or longer.
Most of the Winter Texans hop in their RV’s and drive
to a campground.And campgrounds are becoming more elaborate, with a lot of amenities.For instance, a large campsite was recently developed on Hudson Bend Road in
western TravisCounty, offering sites with porches, a
community center, ponds, paved roads, etc. – replicating a community
neighborhood.
IH35, linking Canada
and Mexico and traversing
right through the Austin
area, is the natural funnel for
Winter Texans to get away from snow shoveling.Many are now peeling off the roadway when
they get to the Austin area to enjoy the Central Texas quality of life.Why are they foregoing the more semi-tropical
Rio GrandeValley?The survey didn’t publicize those reasons.But you have to wonder if the violence, both
real and perceived, in Mexican border towns didn’t play a role in such
decision-making.
(2/12/10)
An Index that tracks
data to foretell economic change before
it occurs is looking positive for the State of Texas.
It’s called the Texas Index of Leading Indicators and it
is compiled from eight different sources by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.The
most recent update indicates improvement is continuing in the Texas economy.This economic barometer is a composite of
data that tend to change direction before the overall economy.
Looking back, the Fed’s Index showed nine straight months of decline
in Texas
until April 2009.At that moment, the decline smashed into
a wall and, in fact, the Index edged up 1.5% in April 2009.Since that time, the trend has been positive
with only a minor blip.
The April uptick “was followed by 3.9% and 2.0% increases in May and July, along with
a moderate decline of less than 1% in June,” pointed out Beverly Kerr, the Austin Chamber’s VP/Research.“August, September and October’s changes were
fractional but positive,” she added.
The last two months saw gains of 2.0% and 1.1%.As a result, this widely-watched Index
ended the year 12% above the low it
reached in March.
So, if this number-crunching is a predictor of what is
in store, what about job growth?With
regular headlines pointing out that national
unemployment numbers are high and
staying high, what about the
creation of new jobs in Texas?What do the numbers seem to indicate?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
is suggesting that Texas job growth may come in between 1% and 2% in 2010, according to Kerr.This is very healthy, especially coming out of a negative situation last
year.And it certainly is in stark
contrast to what is going on elsewhere around the US.
Kerr also took note of another set of stats issued by the
Dallas Fed.Without going into
eye-glazing economic mumbo-jumbo about this separate report, she said “a simple
extrapolation of this measure might indicate Austin could return to growth in early 2010.Well, here we are – in early 2010.We’ll keep an eye on this for you to see how
it turns out.
Volume 22, Number 19
ENVIRONMENT
(2/19/10)
After suffering from
drought-level lows less than a year
ago,LakeTravis
is almost “full.”It
is still rising from recent rains and,
with a bit more rain, could soon be
full.
The engineers at the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA)
who control the levels of Lake Travis have set an elevation of 681’ above sea
level as the point where flooding can best be controlled.In other words, the “full” level is not all the way up to the
spillway.It gives the engineers
enough room if deluges send massive amounts of water rushing into the lake.
Rivers and streams that flow into the HighlandLakes
remain slightly elevated from the rains last week.So, what is the current level of LakeTravis?At the
current rate of inflow, the LCRA
projects the lake to reach the 675’
level next week – just 6’ below the “full” mark of 681’. Last
week, it passed the 671’ mark.The
historical average is 670.67’.
By the way, today (2/19/10)
marks the 75thanniversary
of the LCRA.For a century prior to
the formation of LCRA, there were many efforts to build dams on the Colorado River.Austin, for instance,
twice built a dam in the early 20th century, only to see the
structures destroyed or severely damaged by catastrophic floods.
Following the Great Depression, the Public Works
Administration made federal funds available for large infrastructure projects
to a public agency.After three defeats
in the Texas Legislature, the LCRA was created in late 1934.It formally opened for business in the Travis
County Courthouse February 19, 1935.Construction of dams along the Colorado River
began right away.LCRA provides energy,
water and community services to more than a million people in all or parts of
61 Central and South Texas counties.It
cannot levy taxes or receive tax money, but mustoperate on revenues it
receives for services.Its annual
budget:$1.2 billion.
Volume 22, Number 19
GROWTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
(3.5.10)
The student
population at UTAustin is getting very close to the highest enrollment ever
recorded.And it is already one of the largest single
campuses in the US.
In fall 2002, student enrollment on the Forty Acres
reached an all-time high of 52,261.In
an apples-to-apples comparison, the student body this fall was 50,955.And based on applications and other
benchmarks, UTAustin officials say the
fall 2010 tally could exceed 52,000.
Why is this important?“When we exceed 50,000, we aggravate a serious shortage of undergraduate laboratory space for
classes our students need to graduate,” says UTAustin presidentBill
Powers.
There has always been enrollment pressure at the
flagship institution.For instance, 31,000
students submitted applications
for enrollment at UTAustin this fall.The university actually admitted more than 14,000.Based on past history, UTAustin is projecting that about half of these
admitted students will choose to go elsewhere.So, it is anticipating theincoming 2010 freshman class will number 7,200.
This is particularly timely because this week the
UTSystem Board of Regents approved average student tuition increases at
UTAustin of 3.95%.So it will now cost
more for parents to send their kids to UTAustin.The question then arises:will
this tuition hike cut down on the student population on the Forty Acres?Not
a chance.Look at the previous
paragraph.About 31,000 students applied
for admission to a class that will end up at about 7,200.
In actual dollars, what will it now cost to send Momma’s
and Daddy’s little darlin’s to UTAustin this fall?When you add mandatory fees and a
student-imposed fee for a new activity center to tuition, the cost per semester will be $4,709.Next year, 2011, tuition will go up again --
by 3.89%.
Powers points out there have been media reports that other state university institutions are
raising tuition – 7.5% at the University
of Minnesota, 9% at the University of Illinois,
32% at the University
of California system.
Another comparison.There are only three Tier One universities in Texas, those with the highest academic
ranking – UTAustin, TexasA&M and Rice, a private university.Rice also announced tuition increases
effective this fall.The undergrad tuition
increase will be 5.4%.This will raise Rice’s cost for 2010-2011 to $33,120.When you add room and board (which also increased), the cost for
entering students at Rice will be close to $48,500.Rice pointed out that its tuition and fees
are about $6,000 less than that charged by its peer private universities.
Final note, amplifying the above point about so many
“accepted” students not attending UTAustin. More
than half the students with SAT scores in excess of 1400 declined to accept and
a majority of students offered one of UTAustin’s most generous scholarships
declined to accept.So UTAustin has
embarked on a $150 million scholarship drive.
(2/26/10)
Austin is obviously changing, especially in the diversity of the people
who live in the Austin
area.This has been obvious for some time, but one aspect of this may be surprising
to you.
When the results of the 2010 USCensus are finally
released, it should show that Asian-Americans will have vaulted into a tie with
African-Americans as a percentage of
the area’s population.Each group will have about 7% of the local
population.Hispanics will have surged to about 37% of Austin’s population and another 2% will be
other ethnic minorities.And, as these
numbers show, the Anglo population will be less than 50%.